Bitcoin's Sideways Trend Lowers Volatility to Six-Month Lows

Bitcoin's Sideways Trend Lowers Volatility to Six-Month Lows

Bitcoin's recent performance has raised concerns among market observers about the sustainability of its momentum as the cryptocurrency remains confined within a narrow trading range. Despite reaching a yearly high earlier in the month, Bitcoin has been oscillating between $29,500 and $31,500 following a notable 27% surge over nine days in June. This subsequent back-and-forth movement has left Bitcoin hovering around the $30,000 price level.

According to Mike McGlone, a senior market strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, Bitcoin's stall around $30,000 could be indicative of broader economic issues, given the anticipation of a potential exchange-traded fund launch and the seemingly unstoppable stock market.

Various charts offer insights into the potential direction of Bitcoin:

Volatility Squeeze: Bitcoin's rally, supported by traditional financial sector firms like Citadel Securities and BlackRock, led to increased volatility and expanded Bollinger Bands. However, the recent sideways trend has triggered a "volatility squeeze," with bandwidth dropping to six-month lows. Such patterns often foreshadow breakout movements due to the cyclical nature of volatility.

Above Support: The ongoing sideways correction is taking place above a critical area of support. Two Fibonacci relationships intersect around $27,000 to $27,500, forming a time-at-price cluster zone. The density of this zone is determined by the number of closing prices recorded in that region during the rally that commenced in November.

Significant Barrier: A potential break above the current horizontal regime will encounter notable resistance, as revealed by Point-and-Figure chart analysis, which plots prices without a time dimension. To overcome this resistance, a daily close of $32,836 is required, effectively surpassing a 45-degree down-trending line and a previous support area now acting as resistance.

Maximum Pain: The options chain for August-end expiration highlights the significance of the aforementioned technically significant levels. Notably, the highest put open interest under $30,000 is at $27,000, while outstanding calls concentrate at a strike price of $32,000, close to the Point-and-Figure hurdle at $32,836. The "maximum pain" point, representing the price at which most outstanding options will expire worthless, remains at $30,000.

With Bitcoin's prolonged sideways churn and low volatility, market participants are closely monitoring the potential for breakout or significant movements that could shape the trajectory of the cryptocurrency in the near future.

Title #5: "SEC Disputes Ripple Ruling, Hints at Possible Appeal"

Thumbnail Title: "SEC Questions Ripple Ruling, Considers Appeal"


The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has expressed its disagreement with a portion of the recent Ripple ruling, stating that it was "wrongly decided." The contested part of the ruling focused on whether the sale of XRP on exchanges constituted a sale of securities. The SEC's comments came in response to a motion to dismiss filed by defendants Terraform Labs and its founder, Do Kwon, who referred to the Ripple case ruling in their defense.

The Ripple ruling, which was seen as a partial win for the SEC and the U.S. crypto industry, found that the sale of XRP to institutional investors was considered a sale of securities. However, the SEC argued that the court should have reached a similar conclusion regarding retail sales of XRP. According to the SEC, the Ripple ruling created an "artificial distinction" between "sophisticated" institutional buyers and retail investors, leading to different "reasonable investor" standards for the two groups.

The SEC asserted that the court's analysis of retail sales conflicted with the well-established Howey Test and federal securities laws jurisprudence. The agency further claimed that the ruling's logic deviated from the fundamental principles behind Howey and the federal securities laws, as it provided less protection to retail investors, contrary to the intended purpose of these laws.

As a result, the SEC asked the court to disregard the Ripple ruling concerning retail sales in the ongoing lawsuit against Terraform Labs and Do Kwon.

Regarding the possibility of an appeal, the SEC's filing mentioned that its staff is considering all options for "further review" and intends to recommend the SEC to file an appeal. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse previously stated that the SEC could take "years" to file an appeal, expressing optimism that Ripple would ultimately prevail if an appeal were filed.

The dispute over the Ripple ruling continues to draw attention, and the SEC's potential appeal adds another layer of uncertainty to the ongoing legal battle between Ripple and the regulatory agency.

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