Bond Market's Economic Forecasting Track Record May Not Be Accurate This Time
The bond market’s ability to predict economic downturns and forecast the Federal Reserve’s moves has earned it a near-mythic reputation. However, it may not be accurate this time as the actual economic data is sending different signals than what the bond market suggests. The bond market predicts that the economy will experience a hard stop and recession that will force the Fed to cut interest rates to stimulate activity. In contrast, the actual economic data shows continued growth for the US, indicating that the bond market may be off base. If the market's expectations continue to diverge from the economic reality, there could be a painful market adjustment that investors may lose or make money depending on how they are positioned.